Which stonks are you buying if any?

[UtwigMU]

Apple will launch car. By history of other EV stocks it could become more valued than all other MAAMGs combined.

[Dr Mordrid]

So what percentage of your portfolio is TSLA?

I'm leaning to buy more MSFT as AMD, NVDA are expensive (own some), INTC will take about a year for Sapphire Rapids to hit and iron out kinks, Gates foundation recently bought MSFT, has reasonable PE, comparable to other tech stocks, is inelastic (businesses need Office) so they can pass inflation to business customers.

30%

[UtwigMU]

So what percentage of your portfolio is TSLA (+54% YTD)?

I'm leaning to buy more MSFT (+52% YTD) as AMD, NVDA are expensive (own some), INTC will take about a year for Sapphire Rapids to hit and iron out kinks, Gates foundation recently bought MSFT, has reasonable PE, comparable to other tech stocks, is inelastic (businesses need Office) so they can pass inflation to business customers.

Would anyone know why are banks such as Goldman Sachs + 75% per 1Y, +48% YTD while interest is still low and bank profits are low?

[Dr Mordrid]

Tesla will be installing 2 Megapack grid storage battery systems in the UK; the 49.5MW/99MWh Chapel Farm battery project near Luton in England, and the 49MW/98MWh Jamesfield Farm battery project near Abernethy in Scotland.

Tesla Energy's home, commercial and grid orders crossed over into profitability in July 2021, and they now have an order backlog. Once the chip shortage clears (a $17B Samsung chip factory is opening near Tesla's new & massive Austin, TX facility) they plan a serious ramp.

StarLink equipment will also be built in Austin, TX.

[Dr Mordrid]

Rivian surpases VW market cap with $146bn

We live about 12 miles from Rivian's Plymouth, MI engineering facility, so they're seen rather often on local roads.

The R1T pickup is rated a Class 2b, with a gross weight rating of 8,501 - 10,000 lbs (3,856 - 4,536 kg), the same as Ford F-250, Chevrolet Silverado 2500, and Ram 2500. It takes a Class V hitch (gross trailer weight 17,000 lbs with a max tongue weight of 1,700 lbs).

Sounds impressive, but up close it's not as large as it sounds with just a 4.5 foot bed (gate up) vs many trucks with a 6 - 8 foot bed.

That said, it has a NICE interior, and a tunnel which runs side to side across the truck. Doors on both sides, it's good for long tools, golf clubs, etc. Being an EV, it also has a big Frunk (front trunk) where the engine would normally be, and AC outlets in handy places.

[UtwigMU]

Rivian surpases VW market cap with $146bn

[UtwigMU]

Do you have any ideas for growth stocks, I'm close to my Q3 purchase. Reasonably stable good company with good outlook for next 5 years, bonus if it's a bit undervalued at the moment.

I have nVidia and MSFT which are both up 120% and 50%. nVidia is a bit high, so I wouldn't buy at this price. MSFT will continue to grow. Amazon, Google stocks cost 3k, so no. I'm not touching FB.
AMD is also up (have 2 shares in my meme account) as well as Nokia, so also not sure if they will continue to grow. AMD market cap is close to Intel.

I'm thinking of Intel since they finally got new process going.

Anyone following big oil or big tobacco? Exxon, Altria?

We now have inflation of everything: decent tech stocks (example Oracle) up, apartments, real estate up 20% or more, yoghurt and coffee I buy regularly up 20%, petrol up 30% year over year.
Fed said they will taper and stonks went up. Probably not until next year before we see any interest hikes. Dividend yields will probably not keep up with inflation and also I have 50/50 between dividend and growth split, my plan is to up the growth part to 80-90% of portfolio.

[Dr Mordrid]

Tesla hit $1.1T Friday, and according to Morgan Stanley an annualized production rate of 1 million. This without Austin and Berlin being in production.

Agreed, there are castings in other vehicles but they're relatively small.

Model Y front casting
Model Y front casting 1024.jpg

Model Y rear casting
1635652649237.jpg

[UtwigMU]

Yes, other companies have conveyor belts instead of fork lifts.

[Dr Mordrid]

Tesla's Giga press is Italian. We and all other gelato machines manufacturers order pressed/pulled basins from a single Italian company which has presses with sufficient pressure.

If you check Idra Group's website they had techies from Audi on educational course in 2019. They also have Magna and Renault in their news page.
Yes, casting car is cool but it's not something others can't also do.

This Idra Giga press is a bit like Apple, Bose or Leica who thinks of special names (eg retina display for high DPI IPS) for standard so as to stand out as luxury from regular companies.

Looks like one other company has bought a Giga Press; Glovitech, and they're making Faraday cages. Tesla bought the rest, and they're buying a lot more - including for Cybertruck. But the machine is only part of the secret sauce; other constraints on other car companies using Giga Press (scrub to 05:40),

[UtwigMU]

Tesla's Giga press is Italian. We and all other gelato machines manufacturers order pressed/pulled basins from a single Italian company which has presses with sufficient pressure.

If you check Idra Group's website they had techies from Audi on educational course in 2019. They also have Magna and Renault in their news page.
Yes, casting car is cool but it's not something others can't also do.

This Idra Giga press is a bit like Apple, Bose or Leica who thinks of special names (eg retina display for high DPI IPS) for standard so as to stand out as luxury from regular companies.

[dZeus]

The Tesla big battery operator Neoen has been sued in Australia for failing to provide grid backup as promised. Would be interesting to see what the root cause for non-compliance was.

Toyota is far behind in EV technology, as they were leading for a long time in hybrid and got fully invested in the switch to hydrogen cars. Might turn out to be an extremely expensive mistake on their part. I've read many negative opinions on the suitability of hydrogen as medium of energy exchange in cars, and tanking up in fuel stations is an expensive and slow process due to the differences in hydrogen pressure that need to be overcome, which undo many potential advantages vs electric charging of EVs.
Stellantis is a huge conglomerate of historically money losing businesses, and I wouldn't invest any money in there personally
VW has understood the need to ramp up with EV, but they also are quite a bit behind Tesla and have suffered reputational damage with dieselgate. With the recent semiconductor shortage, I started to understand that most car manufacturers are lightyears behind using modern microchips and process nodes. I understand the need for fault-tested and reliable-longlasting well understood mass-produced electronics, but without trying to innovate you will fall behind competitors that can consolidate a lot of electronics into much fewer parts. modern development practices around car software are also essential to this end. We'll see if VW can manage to catch up, at least they seem to understand how far they are behind.

I wouldn't be surprised if the biggest threat to Tesla will come from China, either directly (there are plenty of Chinese players in the Chinese EV market), or indirectly (eg Polestar or other Chinese-controlled foreign manufacturers).

Another interesting point is that existing manufacturers that fail to compete in the EV race might be better off becoming OEMs for IP companies like Apple, as their manufacturing capacity and knowledge should still be able to generate good revenue.

Tldr; I won't touch TSLA shares myself, but valuation of historical manufacturers might be reasonable or even high when looking at the very rapid shift to EVs that is now starting, and the uncertainty in how well they will be able to compete.

[Dr Mordrid]

That is not the point UtwigMU is making... Tesla is worth more than VW, Toyota, GM and Stellantis combined. Now suppose Tesla manages overnight to replace all of these brands, then Tesla would be valued much higher than those four groups, even if there is not that much growth potential in the scenario where those no longer exist.
It could be a change of the meaning of valuation, closer to silicon valley than to car-manufacturers, but still it feels something is off here.

The problem is that some still view Tesla as just a car company when it isn't. Tesla Energy is a growing business, with small to utility scale battery installations going in worldwide and they just expanded with a huge new factory in California. Major products; Megapack, Powerpack, and Powerwall (home, small business), silicon carbide control systems, etc.. This dwarfs their solar roof business, which is better known.

The large units (Megapack, Powerpack) don't just do power storage, but also perform grid management; frequency control, Autobidder (automatic bidding for power distribution), brownout prevention, replacing peaker plants, etc.

They're also developing microgrids; solar on every roof in a development with distributed storage including Vehicle 2 Grid technologies (using EVs to do grid backup for the neighborhood). The plan is to test it in Australia.

Tesla Energy just announced they're switching to the lithium iron phosphate chemistry - which is safer, longer lasting and far cheaper (cobalt & nickel free).

Ex:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-03-08/tesla-is-plugging-a-secret-mega-battery-into-the-texas-grid

Tesla Is Plugging a Secret Mega-Battery Into the Texas Grid

The utility-scale battery located outside of Houston will connect to the same grid that faltered in February’s freeze

Elon Musk is getting into the Texas power market, with previously unrevealed construction of a gigantic battery connected to an ailing electric grid that nearly collapsed last month. The move marks Tesla Inc.’s first major foray into the epicenter of the U.S. energy economy.
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While Tesla’s focus on energy often takes a back seat to the increasingly competitive business of manufacturing and selling electric cars, Musk and his executive team continue to highlight energy as a key part of their growth. “I think long-term Tesla Energy will be roughly the same size as Tesla Automotive,” Musk said during an earnings call in July 2020. “The energy business is collectively bigger than the automotive business.”
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https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/arevon-signs-agreement-for-2-gw6-gwh-of-tesla-megapack-systems-301386238.html

Arevon Signs Agreement for 2 GW/6 GWh of Tesla Megapack Systems

NEW YORK and SCOTTSDALE, Ariz., Sept. 28, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Arevon, a leading renewable energy company, has secured a 2 GW/6 GWh supply of Tesla Megapack to support its growing utility-scale storage portfolio through a master supply agreement. By the end of 2021, Arevon will have overseen construction and operation of 250 MW/1,000 MWh of battery energy storage systems deploying the Tesla Megapack at sites in California and Nevada.
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[VJ]

Amid the rapid conversion of the auto industry to electric, VW and Toyota are scrambling in Tesla's wake.

That is not the point UtwigMU is making... Tesla is worth more than VW, Toyota, GM and Stellantis combined. Now suppose Tesla manages overnight to replace all of these brands, then Tesla would be valued much higher than those four groups, even if there is not that much growth potential in the scenario where those no longer exist.
It could be a change of the meaning of valuation, closer to silicon valley than to car-manufacturers, but still it feels something is off here.

[Dr Mordrid]

Tesla is valued 2M per car sold. Realistic (VW, Toyota, Ford) is 15-25k.
They made 500k cars, while big companies make 9M per year. Last year they were only profitable because of subsidies and crypto pump and dump.
>

Tesla will hit over 900,000 this year with 2 new factories (Germany, Texas) opening by year's end, and well over 1.5 million next year. In their last quarterly they had a 30.5% gross margin, of which only 2% were credits. Cash: $16.065 billion as of Sep 30, 2021.

What is more probable: VW, Toyota hitting 15-20 trillion valuation or Tesla coming down to more realistic 100-500M?

Amid the rapid conversion of the auto industry to electric, VW and Toyota are scrambling in Tesla's wake.

Toyota was in denial over pure EVs, pushing fuel cells, while others advanced battery techs. Now batteries are becoming so cheap fuel cells are a niche.

VW has admitted they're far behind Tesla and scrambling; Diess reported it takes them 30 hours to make a vehicle while Tesla rolls one off the line in 10 hours, and that gap will increase. Tesla is switching to a structural battery pack for the center frame, with the front and rear chassis segments being one piece high pressure (6000-8000 tonne) castings. Bolt together and you have most of the vehicle. Goodbye to hundreds of parts and the processes it takes to assemble them.

Tesla-Model Y_rear_casting+4680_structural_battery-1024.jpg