"Blu-ray Disc" vs. "HD DVD": Neither Is Winning

[Jerry Jones]

HD will become widespread before 2012.

Sure... in developed nations, but let's face it: millions and millions of people live in developing nations where they're still watching videos on video CDs... not even standard definition DVDs.

So your prediction is somewhat "aggressive," in my view.

I say 2012 at the earliest.

I think time will prove me right.



Mark, I'm waiting for the ultra portable Macintosh to be released in January at Macworld:

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/07/11/12/ultra_portable_apple_notebook_to_splash_down_at_macworld_expo.html

It will be sweet.



Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Hulk]

Tough to admit when I'm getting Netflix movies in the mail and watching them.

My wife was very excited today when she checked the mailbox and "Knocked Up" was in there.

Should I tell her optical discs are dead and put it back in the mail box or should she watch it tomorrow night? She's been looking forward to this movie for a month and has had a hard week at work. She doesn't want to stream a movie to her laptop or desktop, that's work for her. Putting a disc in the player and watching in the family room is fun.

Jerry you are on the ropes in the 15th round and you have been getting knocked around in this thread for a long time. I'll admit it's amazing you're still on your feet but it's more a case of your legs not knowing your brain has given up a long time ago!

Oh yeah here's another body blow.

Most hotels/motels don't have TV's with component input, or even composite. But they DO often have DVD players and even (gasp) VCR's.

Sure I can hook up my laptop to a TV IF the TV has the right connections and then fiddle with black bars, centering the image, deinterlacing... but again that's work.

Popping in a disc and a pressing play is easier and that's WHY EVERYBODY is still doing it.

When you've got no aguement the playbook says go to platitudes.

You're getting hurt bad Jerry! Just go down so you can come back another day before you get seriously hurt! Don't you have a corner that can throw in the towel for you? You've got too much pride.

[Evildead666]

I'm going to stick by my own predictions and predict the return of the cartridge.
-Instant Acces to all and any scenes.
-easy to add DRM, its a cartridge with chips inside, add a DRM chip.
- Cannot scratch.
- Pretty lightweight, already used in a lot of old consoles. (edit : not meaning they can play them, but tech is a known factor)
- When DRAM gets priced low enough to able to do 50Gb cartridges, and high density chips.

We are seeing Flash devices arriving to PC's in the SSD format.
Imagine renting something like that (read only access) and just plugging into your player.

Thats what I believe. Maybe in a few years, maybe in a decade.

[Evildead666]

ANY download model introduced will HAVE to have a P2P system, to alleviate the need for large, High Bandwidth servers.
This will be cracked, and the content providers will stop their distribution.

The only thing preventing widespread download is content protection.
Films and eps available in the USA are not available in Europe, etc...due to copyright restrictions.

CD's and DVD's were popular with the companies from the very start, due to the physical distribution model, different discs for differen regions etc...
On a download basis, that is hard to implement, especially with proxies etc...

I also can't see a company allowing you to DL the whole film to the HDD. It will only be Streaming, so you can't crack the DRM. If you don't have the whole file at once, you can't do much to it...

[Jerry Jones]

Agree 100%.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

I'm going to stick by my own predictions and predict the return of the cartridge.
-Instant Acces to all and any scenes.
-easy to add DRM, its a cartridge with chips inside, add a DRM chip.
- Cannot scratch.
- Pretty lightweight, already used in a lot of old consoles. (edit : not meaning they can play them, but tech is a known factor)
- When DRAM gets priced low enough to able to do 50Gb cartridges, and high density chips.

We are seeing Flash devices arriving to PC's in the SSD format.
Imagine renting something like that (read only access) and just plugging into your player.

Thats what I believe. Maybe in a few years, maybe in a decade.

[Jerry Jones]

Yes, Vudu.com is pioneering this concept with high definition downloads with major studio support.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6501304.html

Vudu's standard-def content is already optimized for HDTVs, but the high-def content will give customers six times higher resolution than standard-def-encoded films, the company said.

Vudu would join Xbox Live Marketplace as the only other online location for high-definition downloads. Xbox Live has 600 hours of high-def content from major studios and TV networks, a company representative said.

Vudu uses a peer-to-peer service. Movies are downloaded from a number of fellow P2P users that already have the file on their Vudu box. Files can be sent faster than those downloaded from one central server.

http://www.vudu.com/

This "P2P" approach is going to work, in my opinion.

And, of course, it is the reason why "HD DVD" and "Blu-ray Disc" are as dead as DISCo.



Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

ANY download model introduced will HAVE to have a P2P system, to alleviate the need for large, High Bandwidth servers.

[Nowhere]

Disco is alive!!!


Disco! Disco! Disco!

[Jerry Jones]

Even Sony's CEO seems to realize that "HD DVD" and "Blu-ray Disc" are locked in stalemate and -- thus -- are as dead as DISCo:

http://www.hometheatermag.com/news/111307stringer/

Sir Howard Stringer, CEO of Sony, has finally conceded what other observers have been saying for some time: The format war between Blu-ray and HD DVD is stalled in a stalemate.

So...

Sony knows it.

I know it.

The rest of the world knows it.

You know it.



Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Hulk]

Two questions Jerry.

Do you have a DVD player?

Do you still use it?

[Evildead666]

I still can't see even P2P helping.

You're still locked by the characteristics of your Internet connection, and who would be happy to give up their upload bandwidth to the TV ?

How many people already LEECH off of FREE, stolen downloads ? Sh*tloads of people.
People will find ways to make the upload part work as slow as possible, so they can use their favorite chat program, Video-Skype, etc...(DL even more free stuff)

Consumers don't want to be part of the distribution model, even if it is in their interest. For them, they should be paid in some way for the usage of their Internet. For commercial purposes none the less...

People should be 'rewarded' for their upload bandwidth, getting credits for another video rental. If a guy who uploads at 1024K/s is the same as uploading at 12K/s, then why bother ?
This means that the distributor company also has to keep tabs of who's uploading how much, and what, and attributing reward points to them.
That adds a f*ing huge database, a points purchase system, no right to fail.
one mistake, a problem rewarding people, its dead.
People cheating the points system, getting hacked for points, the customer database, aaargggh.

Steam works because they have the database of what you own.
It could work for distribution of Video and Audio, but the files would be on the Internet in a cough.
Games need a lot of files, and have some pretty good protection systems. Which can be updated.

Whats the point of updating DRM on a DVD file thats already been hacked...?

The "I have it in my hands" format for Video/Audio is still gonna be here for a while.

iTunes is doing good, i'll give it to them. But it is Apple. They are their own.

It should be shown how many people use iTunes compared to the OS.
Nearly all Mac users ? Anyone have figures ?

[Jerry Jones]

I still can't see even P2P helping.

Check out Vudu.com, which uses peer-to-peer (P2P), for high definition movie downloads:

http://www.vudu.com/

...high definition downloads from major studios...

...as verified by the news story here:

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6501304.html

Even Macworld... an Apple-related publication... gave Vudu a pretty decent early review:

http://www.macworld.com/2007/10/reviews/vudu/index.php

...and note that the upload bandwidth is capped at a mere 300 Kbps!

With the box connected to the Internet, each Vudu user essentially contributes to a peer-to-peer network to ensure the delivery of every movie. The upload rate is capped at a reasonable rate (300 Kbps), so Vudu won’t make your Internet connection sluggish.

This thing is going to work, in my view.



Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Hulk]

Two questions Jerry.

Do you have a DVD player?

Do you still use it?

Well?

[Evildead666]

They put a cap on the upload at least, thats cool.

But i only have 400Kbps anyway, and tht would seriously screw up my bandwidth, especially the video on skype...

I'm playing around with Joost, but the Country restrictions, and the lack of audio soundtracks put me off...i'd like to be able to watch the films available to the french, in english. ATM its not possible.
Pet Sematary in French is no where any near as good...

[Evildead666]

Anyone know how I can set up a proxy to make it look like I have a US ip ?

I would like to see if i can get Joost, the US version...

edit : well, look at the tv shows they enjoy, anyway...

[Jerry Jones]

Pioneer's all new "SyncTV" download service debuts:

http://www.synctv.com/company.html

We know how important audio and video quality are to you. So we have ensured that the audio and video quality of every TV show is comparable or superior to the same show on DVD. Where possible, SyncTV will provide HD programming across the different channels. SyncTV will also have programming available in discreet 5.1 Dolby Digital Plus, giving you the full home theater experience.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net