"Blu-ray Disc" vs. "HD DVD": Neither Is Winning

[Jerry Jones]

There's one more reason neither format has won by now.

How many of your friends or relatives actually *have* either "Blu-ray Disc" or "HD DVD" playback capability?

How many of your friends or relatives are anxiously awaiting those $200 "Blu-ray Disc" or "HD DVD" players?

How many of your friends or relatives are perfectly content with DVDs?

How many of your friends or relatives have a computer -- now -- that can play 720p WMV HD or high definition H.264 files?

File-based HD playback.

That's the future, baby.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Jerry Jones]

Also, who wants to be the poor sucker who buys the "Blu-ray Disc" or "HD DVD" hardware that becomes the next BETAMAX?

Not me.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Jerry Jones]

Here's interesting speculation that forthcoming APPLE computers will do away with optical drives entirely:

http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2007/09/rumor-new-apple.html

The increasingly speculative AppleInsider says the new notebooks will have black and aluminum finishes, lose the optical drive and gain NAND flash memory to supplement the hard drive.

The new kid on the rumor block, 9to5Mac (who brought us the original Fat Nano story), also reports slimline, DVD free aluminum MacBooks.

Throwing away the optical drive would be very Apple. Remember the floppy? Apple ditched that before almost everyone else. A CD/DVD drive is still pretty useful though, if only for reading purposes: ripping music, watching DVD rentals and installing software. Authoring optical media, though, is arguably less useful: these days everyone, including your grandmother, has a USB thumb drive, and optical discs are notoriously poor for long term backup.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[paulw]

Also, who wants to be the poor sucker who buys the "Blu-ray Disc" or "HD DVD" hardware that becomes the next BETAMAX?

Not me.

Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

As one who got caught with an expensive Beta machine I'm sitting on the fence this time but quietly hopping that HD DVD will win..

[Hulk]

Jerry,

Wow you must have some clumsy friends because I've never seen anybody do as much "fumbling" with DVD's as you suggest!

All of those streaming devices have basically zero market penetration. You think you have problems with Windows? Read the reviews on some of those products. Definitely not ready for primetime. I can just imagine my parents trying to set those devices up!

They're much better off fumbling to put a disc in a bay and press "play."

You can wish all you want but optical discs will drive the video market for quite some time to come.

[Jerry Jones]

1. Review:

APPLE TV receives 7.7 from CNET:

http://reviews.cnet.com/digital-media-receivers/apple-tv-40gb/4505-6739_7-32306442.html

Apple TV delivers a simple and elegant streaming media solution.

2. Review:

Positive review from PCWORLD:

http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,130095-page,1/article.html

Apple TV Just Plain Works

3. Review:

New York Times writer David Pogue

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/22/technology/22pogue.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&ref=technology

We’ll soon be saying R.I.P. for the DVD. Internet downloads are the future, baby. No driving, no postpaid envelopes. Any movie, any TV show, any time.

There are plenty more positive reviews I could add.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

Read the reviews on some of those products.

[Jerry Jones]

High definition optical discs also have very low market penetration because few people want to take the risk of investing in a format that might lose the war.

The file-based streaming solutions will gain traction faster than the high definition optical disc formats because they won't be obsolete tomorrow.

Accept it.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

All of those streaming devices have basically zero market penetration.

[Jerry Jones]

Another positive review:

D-Link MediaLouge DSM-750 gets 7 out of 10 from ZDNet:

http://review.zdnet.com/digital-media-receivers/d-link-medialounge-dsm/4505-6739_16-31524144.html

The bottom line: Equally adept at streaming audio, photos, and HD video, the D-Link MediaLounge DSM-520 offers a winning combination of impressive features and performance at an affordable price.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Jerry Jones]

APPLE TV is very simple to use.

From the CNET review:

On many such devices, connecting to a wireless network and interfacing with a connected computer can be a Sisyphean ordeal that taxes even the most patient and knowledgeable gadget fan. But with Apple TV, the setup process couldn't be simpler.

http://reviews.cnet.com/digital-media-receivers/apple-tv-40gb/4505-6739_7-32306442.html

I submit that setting up an APPLE TV or similar device is easier than the setup for high definition optical disc players/recorders.

Such streaming devices utilize 802.11n.

What is 802.11n?

Answer from CNET:

Apple TV is the first digital media adapter we've seen to include built-in support for 802.11n wireless networking. That's the latest--and fastest--iteration of the Wi-Fi standard. Designed to support speeds of up to 200 Mbps, the 11n standard is fast enough (on paper, at least) to deliver the high bandwidth required to stream high-def video. The device will still interact with older wireless standards, but don't expect 802.11g, and especially 802.11b, networks to reliably stream video.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

I can just imagine my parents trying to set those devices up!

[Jerry Jones]

APPLE's official APPLE TV Web page:

http://www.apple.com/appletv/

It's really slick.

See here how it works on your widescreen:

http://www.apple.com/appletv/tour.html?section=youtube

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Jerry Jones]

After watching this...

http://www.apple.com/appletv/guidedtour/

...see how all of your media is superbly organized and accessed?

It's elegant!

I can't understand why anybody would want to invest in another expensive optical disc format with all of the baggage... labels... shelves... discs... burners... disc players... disc recorders... etc.

The natural evolution is not DVD-to-high-definition-DVD.

The natural evolution is DVD-to-file-based-streaming-via-home-networks.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Jerry Jones]

This diagram explains how the home network works...

http://www.apple.com/appletv/guidedtour/

See how everything syncs?

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Jerry Jones]

Also... the wireless home network pretty much eliminates clutter from bulky optical disc players/recorders and their antiquated cables.

The APPLE TV device works with either Macs or PCs and...

And -- this is cool -- you can stream from *any* computer in your house no matter where it's located!

If you want to watch video from another computer, you can stream it live to your TV via Apple TV. Streamed media travels over your network to your TV — without taking up space on Apple TV’s hard drive. That’s perfect for multicomputer households or when the computer you sync with has more in its iTunes library than will fit on Apple TV. Just choose up to five additional computers from the Sources menu. As long as a computer’s on your network, it can stream to your TV.

http://www.apple.com/appletv/guidedtour/

When consumers figure this out, they'll forget about optical formats pretty quickly.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Jerry Jones]

"Blu-ray Disc" & "HD DVD": DEAD FORMATS WALKING?

From Eweek.Com:

http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1895,1951701,00.asp

Opinion: The new high-def DVD formats now coming on the market are in big trouble, but you won't hear that from Hollywood or by way of the technology makers. Instead of the biggest technology introduction ever, it could be one huge fiasco for optical storage.

Consumers have gained confidence with the benefits of downloading audio and now video files with TiVo video players and the Apple iPod.

Instead of moving to new DVD formats, consumers will purchase licenses to download the high-definition titles to a media server. The files are big but not that big. And storing files on a remote server is the greener alternative!

Despite its slim capacity, plain ol' DVD will exist for a long while. But in a short while, just a couple of years, the network will be the king of high-def. And that adoption curve will put DVDs to shame.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Jerry Jones]

Both "HD DVD" and "Blu-ray Disc" are doomed, according to these editorials:

http://www.slate.com/id/2153877/fr/rss/

http://wiredinc.com/hd-format-war-2006-08

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1759,2138724,00.asp

http://kotaku.com/gaming/blu_ray/blu+ray-and-hd+dvd-dead-as-disc+o-215444.php

http://www.audioholics.com/news/editorials/10-more-reasons-hd-dvd-failed

http://www.extremetech.com/article2/0,1558,2171014,00.asp

May both formats REST IN PEACE.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net