Earthquake in Japan

[VJ]

I know... but for such serious matters, a once in a century event implies that it will occur in the lifetime of 2 generations. And the consequences are so big that the risk is still too big... In this case, all failsafes worked, but the main problem was caused by the tsunami. While you cannot build for that, it is possible to find a tsunami-free location.
This earthquake will have probably have a huge impact on nuclear powerplants all over the world as people realize they've taken too much risk. Germany has closed some for testing, Belgium is planning stress tests and is reconsidering its plans to extend the lifetime of the current plants, ...

[dZeus]

stress tests? isn't that analogous to 'public relations'? I mean, nearly every big European bank passed such a 'stress test'...

[UtwigMU]

There is big panic: in Russian far East Plane tickets to Moscow from Sahalin and Primorskiy region are sold out and yodide tablets are sold, US east coast is also stocking up on yodide. Though these regions are unlikely to see any radiation. All the foreigners are being pulled out of Tokio.

[Evildead666]

In the paper today it said that some people in Paris are trying to get Iodine tablets

Some people will panic no matter what.

[cjolley]

The problem with "risk management" is that there are career pluses for pulling the balance between risk and cost back as far as possible .
Someone who had suggested spending extra money to cover the far end of the curve where risk is very low but potential damage costs very high would wind up in a different line of work. Simply because the very bad thing almost never happens.

Career wise it's better to suggest lower spending and be right 99% of the time than to recommend higher expenditures and prevent astronomical costs only 1% of the time.

[Sasq]

We are now at the point where the Australian govt is recomending Australians GTFO

IAEA has also found core damage to reactors 1~3

[degrub]

Risk management estimates only deal with "averages" and generally assume a bell curve to characterize failure rates. In reality, the numbers are not "real" estimates of risk - they can only be used reliably for "relative" comparisons either to a std based on the same datasets or to previous analyses with same or similar datasets. Where people get it wrong is believing that being in the 100 year flood plain means that only once in a hundred years will they get flooded. It really means that on average one time in a hundred years there will be water at that level. Unfortunately there is no way to predict that "when". And it could be 2 years in a row !

[Dr Mordrid]

More good news;

1) high levels of radiation have been detected 18 miles from the reactors; this is 6 miles outside of the 12 mile evacuation zone set by Japan, but not outside the 50 mile zone set by the US for its people.

2) Fukushima #3 is MOX fueled, meaning a mix of reprocessed, depleted and new uranium and plutonium. MOX reactors are used to dispose of waste/depleted uraniums and plutonium produced in other reactors, a problem that would be much reduced or eliminated if thorium reactors were the norm.

3) extra radiation monitors are being set up in the western US. Very low levela are expected to arrive in Alaska today and the west coast tomorrow.

4) American civilians are being privately encouraged to leave Japan.

[Brian Ellis]

Strictly speaking, there is no such thing as an autonomous thorium reactor, which is loose terminology coined to con people into thinking it is safer than uranium reactors. Thorium can never sustain a chain reaction until it has been converted in a fast or thermal breeder reactor (inherently less safe than conventional uranium reactors). This process converts Th232 to Th233 by neutron absorption thence to protactinium233 and then to uranium233, which is the actual fuel (not U238 as in conventional reactors).

Thorium has the advantages of being more abundant than uranium and less dangerous to mine and process, but the disadvantage of the conversion process which is primed with plutonium or enriched uranium to provide the neutrons. Unfortunately, 8% of the U233 is not fissioned and produces heavier isotopes by absorbing more neutrons from its own chain reaction to U236, U237, Np237, Pu238 and the fissile Pu239, so the "spent" thorium still contains long half-life radionuclides.

Fast breeder reactors have a very bad reputation and many have been closed down for safety reasons (Dounreay in the UK, Super-phénix in France, etc.). It is probable that some will have to be built to reprocess spent nuclear fuel, as capacity is currently insufficient. Thermal breeder reactors are inherently safer but still depend on reliable cooling for operation. If Fukushima reactors were TBRs, the end result would have been similar, thermal runaway, albeit through a different process and probably an even faster time scale.

[UtwigMU]

Also India has been primarily pursuing thorium since it has abundant own supplies (most others have to import uranium). Japan has also been considering thorium reactors.

They are trying to restore power (thinking, could not they bring one of 5-6 blocks back online and use that power to power pumps at other blocks). Still once they have power going they will need to get pumps which might be damaged or corroded by salty water going and fix all potential leaks in the pumps, this will be hard to do on site due to radiation. Also right now they have been circulating sea water, they will have to close circuit and get clean water going.

Also in building next to plant there is storage of 40 years worth of spent fuel rods.

Here's a video on Chernobyl liquidators. Initial dialoge: You forget to put on the mask, even on the building, you feel like at home. Everyone is smiling and is content. They don't sell vodka. Moscow they are saying if you go to Chernobyl you get 150g (5 ounzes) a day. Wife called me and asked me if I'm drinking here. 1M people worked there between 86 and 90.

[UtwigMU]

Nuclear boy video (japanese, subbed):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sakN2hSVxA

[Dr Mordrid]

The type of thorium reactor I'm thinking of is the single fluid molten flouride salt reactor; its normal state is liquid so the "meltdown" of prismatic fuel elements is near meaningless, the salt has a very low vapor pressure and its very thermally & neutron efficient. Yes, it needs some regular fuel dissolved in the salt as part of the reaction and it's a breeder but not the type that was problematic.

[UtwigMU]

Pictures of damage at plant, timeline of events with recorded radiation and fallout cloud (text in German): http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fo...cke-65845.html

[Jammrock]

Nuclear boy video (japanese, subbed):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sakN2hSVxA

Gotta love the stalwartness of the Japanese. And an odd sense of humor. If this happened to almost any other country I think this would have been far worse than it is. If any of those reactor workers survive they should all be given medals and a automatic retirement package.

[Evildead666]

Looks like the wind is changing direction a bit.

http://www.windfinder.com/windreports/windkarte_japan.htm