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  • The direct health consequences of a nuclear accident at Fukushima would be small compared with the devastating impact of Japan's earthquake and tsunami, writes Professor David Spiegelhalter.


    Interesting commentary!
    Brian (the devil incarnate)

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    • Finally some good news:
      Generator at 6 is online, water spraying lowered radiation near 3 and 1 and 2 are connected to power grid.

      Still not OK as they will need to repair equipment for cooling to function and then come with long term containment plan, but improving.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Brian Ellis View Post
        They aren't wrong - the much larger tragedy of the quake and tsunami victims has been lost in the media obsession with the reactors.
        Dr. Mordrid
        ----------------------------
        An elephant is a mouse built to government specifications.

        I carry a gun because I can't throw a rock 1,250 fps

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        • Originally posted by Dr Mordrid View Post
          They aren't wrong - the much larger tragedy of the quake and tsunami victims has been lost in the media obsession with the reactors.
          As is evident with the majority of the posts here.
          “And, remember: there's no 'I' in 'irony'” ~ Merlin Mann

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          • While not many have been killed (appart from ~5-10 personnel) by reactor accident, it may have lasting economical consequences. Chernobyl and handling of it contributed to fall of Soviet union and also significantly impacted economy of Ukraine. While Ukraine was very industrialized their GDP per capita is still lower than that of Russia and Kazakhstan.

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            • Originally posted by Jessterw View Post
              As is evident with the majority of the posts here.
              Which is why I specified the media obsession.
              Dr. Mordrid
              ----------------------------
              An elephant is a mouse built to government specifications.

              I carry a gun because I can't throw a rock 1,250 fps

              Comment


              • How does that change the fact that the majority of the posts here have been in regards to the reactors? I'm not saying there's anything wrong with it, it is after all technical/scientific discussion and this is MURC.
                “And, remember: there's no 'I' in 'irony'” ~ Merlin Mann

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                • FYI

                  cypenv.info is your first and best source for all of the information you’re looking for. From general topics to more of what you would expect to find here, cypenv.info has it all. We hope you find what you are searching for!
                  Brian (the devil incarnate)

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                  • Originally posted by Jessterw View Post
                    How does that change the fact that the majority of the posts here have been in regards to the reactors? I'm not saying there's anything wrong with it, it is after all technical/scientific discussion and this is MURC.
                    Reactors are geeky things, and large numbers of people and their belongings ground up and then washed into piles aren't.
                    Last edited by cjolley; 21 March 2011, 10:13.
                    Chuck
                    秋音的爸爸

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                    • Originally posted by Jessterw View Post
                      How does that change the fact that the majority of the posts here have been in regards to the reactors? I'm not saying there's anything wrong with it, it is after all technical/scientific discussion and this is MURC.
                      As I pointed out in my draft essay, the media, NGOs and governments have all irresponsibly added to the paranoia. I hope to publish the definitive version on my world site tomorrow.
                      Brian (the devil incarnate)

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Brian Ellis View Post
                        As I pointed out in my draft essay, the media, NGOs and governments have all irresponsibly added to the paranoia. I hope to publish the definitive version on my world site tomorrow.
                        AMEN to all the above points. Can't wait to read it.
                        Dr. Mordrid
                        ----------------------------
                        An elephant is a mouse built to government specifications.

                        I carry a gun because I can't throw a rock 1,250 fps

                        Comment


                        • I have just published the definitive version of my essay at http://www.cypenv.info/worldee/files...fukushima.aspx : note the new URL. In addition, I have added a small essay entitled "Fukushima: two weeks later" onto the end of the same page.
                          Brian (the devil incarnate)

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                          • I'd just like to take this little moment while I read your essay to have a word:

                            One of my mates wanted to buy a Geiger-counter/radiation detector from the CRIIRAD.org website.
                            He's not panicking, he wanted one to play with basically.

                            They are understandably (Panic-driven) out of stock
                            They also state that the manufacturer of the tubes for their detector has doubled his prices.

                            Another website in the UK that I found via google, sold out in a few hours after the nuclear problem was made international. http://www.anythingradioactive.com/geiger.htm

                            People have bought geiger counters made for during and after a nuclear war, made during the 60's.
                            Event the description states that they will only detect very high levels of radioactivity, and were meant for the aftermath, rather than a few particles in the wind.

                            Ebay also has profiteers selling Geiger counters (not too overpriced from what I saw), people having bought 10-20 of them seemingly to make a quick buck.

                            I'm more likely to die from my Marlboro's than anything else in the air anyways, but just wanted to say how laughably idiotic people can be when panic sets in.
                            Have a look at the anythingradioactive website, just to have a look at what people have been buying, and the description of what they have been buying

                            edit : A little excerpt from the 'CDV-715' description :
                            The 715 was designed for a post attack situation and only responds to dangerously high levels of radioactivity (scales read from 0.5 – 500 Roentgens/hr), to let survivors know it was (relatively) safe to emerge from their fallout shelters.
                            (back to the essay)
                            PC-1 Fractal Design Arc Mini R2, 3800X, Asus B450M-PRO mATX, 2x8GB B-die@3800C16, AMD Vega64, Seasonic 850W Gold, Black Ice Nemesis/Laing DDC/EKWB 240 Loop (VRM>CPU>GPU), Noctua Fans.
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                            • Ok, now I've finished it I just have one point to enhance greatly:
                              Lack of information.

                              There is no public availability of data concerning the radiation levels anywhere basically.
                              We are always waiting for someone on the telly/radio/internet to give us news, and much of that is the Hysteria.

                              Had the real data been available real-time, to everyone, then there could be no media panic reporting, since we could verify ourselves.
                              The Japanese, and many other countries, look like they are trying to sweep this under the carpet, and only giving statements with 'possibly', 'maybe' and 'could be the case'.
                              A lot of the values given are '1000 times normal' or '3x worse than yesterday' etc.

                              People are pissed off with the media crap, but even more pissed off that there isn't any other 'sensible' information. If there was a sensible place to get reliable, detailed, information, then the intelligent people could educate the others, much better than a politician saving his arse, or some company not wanting to look like they are incompetent, even though they run the place.

                              Having a media blackout is only going to make people suspicious, bring the data out into the open, and it would be irrefutable.

                              Its time to call their bluff.
                              PC-1 Fractal Design Arc Mini R2, 3800X, Asus B450M-PRO mATX, 2x8GB B-die@3800C16, AMD Vega64, Seasonic 850W Gold, Black Ice Nemesis/Laing DDC/EKWB 240 Loop (VRM>CPU>GPU), Noctua Fans.
                              Nas : i3/itx/2x4GB/8x4TB BTRFS/Raid6 (7 + Hotspare) Xpenology
                              +++ : FSP Nano 800VA (Pi's+switch) + 1600VA (PC-1+Nas)

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                              • true enough, by itself. But with real time "data" you have to interpret it - it is not just the absolute value that matters in most ER cases, it is the dosage that counts. That is where the judgment of the IC comes into play on ordering evacuations, exclusion zones, and coordinating the response.

                                Clearly the IC did not do a good enough job communicating in this case - part cultural, part just not knowing what is happening, and part not wanting to create a panic which often causes unnecessary harm of itself. IC in ER is about making reasonable and conservative decisions in the face of sparse and sometimes conflicting information and managing the message that is communicated while many others are speculating and spouting.

                                Been there.

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