WTF :2019-nCoV NovaCoronaVirus Thread

[Dr Mordrid]

Box Score

JAMA release, based on the Chinese CoVid-19 data. 72,314 cases.

Severity; 80% mild, 14% severe, 6% become critically ill

Overall mortality rate; 2.3%

Gender; 2.8% for men, 1.7% for women

Age 9 and under; no fatalities

Among seniors age 70+; 8-14.8%, increasing with age.

US flu morality: about 0.1%, with 16,000 fatalities so far this season.

[UtwigMU]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fbebll/an_angry_crowd_set_fire_to_a_clinic_in_bandar/

Crowd in Iran sets fire to hospital. A week earlier crowd pelted buses with evacuees in Ukraine. Society breakdown coming.

[VJ]

No cases still in Poland, but even so people started stocking up. Shops such as Macro had empty shelves.

With more and more cases popping up in several countries that do not have a clear source of infection, it seems to me that we should prepare for it to become a omnipresent disease, like flu... Let's just hope the speed of infections is contained enough for the healthcare systems and medical research to catch up.

[UtwigMU]

Cases reported in Italy border towns of Trieste and Gorizia (right next to me). Hospitals in Lombardy (Milano, 4h drive, 500km from me) are overwhelmed.

Video from Italian quarantine zone (red zone, no one can exit, if you enter you can no longer go out):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nq2KE-tKJI

Use auto translate. In Italy everything is chaotic but everything functions. Italians are good at thinking outside the box and working around obstacles so I think they will do well in this crisis.

[UtwigMU]

First case in Slovenia, someone who traveled back through Italy.

[Evildead666]

We're up to 577 here so far.
I'm still off for another week, so i'm fine at home.
Its not like we have huge number of people at our local supermarket.
i've already been, just need more cat food.

[dZeus]

We're up to 577 here so far.
I'm still off for another week, so i'm fine at home.
Its not like we have huge number of people at our local supermarket.
i've already been, just need more cat food.

and just 2 days later we're at 949 cases.

At this speed, the authorities will probably strongly recommend self-quarantining the elderly and people with underlying risk factors, remote working for the general population and I've even seen a web page on the French education ministry giving advice on how school children can work and stay in touch with their teachers while at home.

Italy's health case system is not too far from saturating if the virus keeps spreading at the current rate. It will be a devastating time at that point, with people falling ill needing intensive care but forced to stay at home.

imo western governments have severely dropped the ball on this one, too many people were of the opinion 'but we're different' (than China, Iran, etc.), when the prevailing attitude should have been: "the quality of a healthcare system does not make any difference once you hit saturation point. All measures should be focused on preventing hitting the saturation point". And partly avoidable, when looking at the Chinese response mid-January...

[UtwigMU]

16 cases so far, we're unprepared but there will be vote on new government ministers this week. I expect 1000 cases in Slovenia by end of March.

Italy is quite dire and we're connected to it. ~8k sick, ~400 dead, 5% mortality. Prison riots, chief of staff infected.

I think west will do worse than China as they are more capable of mobilizing people and taking drastic measures.

[UtwigMU]

3 prisoners dead in Modena prison riot in Italy.

Update 6 dead, 500 escaped or were prevented from escaping.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/6-killed-dozens-wounded-during-coronavirus-inspired-prison-riot-italy

Slovenia +3 cases since yesterday evening, up to 19. Doctor who was on vacation in italy infected ambulance driver, two nurses and three other people. Peak incompetence.

[VJ]

Not many cases here in Poland yet, but there are a few.
In Belgium, the number of new reported cases each day will not grow much: they only have limited resources to test, and will only test seriously ill hospitalized cases. So the number of reported cases will be a severe underestimate...

Meanwhile, a bit more selfish, I'm worried it will affect my wedding... planned in July... It still is 4 months off, but seeing as what happens in countries where the number of cases grows, it is just a matter of time before something similar will hit both Belgium and Poland... And then it it seems possible that either my side of the family will not be allowed to come, or the wedding ceremony will not be allowed to take place, or even the party... But we still have to continue making arrangements now... But this is perhaps something for another thread, let's not deviate from the topic here...

[UtwigMU]

Saddly I don't think this will be over by summer though probably measures will start to be effective and we will see new cases tapering off.

[Dr Mordrid]

No confirmed cases in MI, 20 being tested. Population: ~10M

Michigan Department of Health and Human Services Bureau of Laboratories has opened their emergency lab and can get results in hours.

[Dr Mordrid]

Containment Zone: 1 sq/mi in New Rochelle, NY.

NY National Guard (state militia, US reserve forces) going in.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/03/10/new-rochelle-coronavirus-containment-zone/%3foutputType=amp

Schools, places of worship and other large gathering spots will close their doors for 14 days beginning Thursday, Cuomo said, and National Guard troops will help deliver food and disinfect common areas inside the zone.

[UtwigMU]

Lombardy has population of 10M. Italy got hit first because they have large Chinese population. When quarantine hit in China, Chinese with residence and relatives in Italy headed there.

Other European countries and USA are only lagging a few weeks behind Italy although they closed schools and limited gatherings sooner. Italy has decent public health and high life expectancy. Based on spread statistics there are probably a lot untested cases in USA and spread there is only now starting to take hold, so some areas there will look like Italy in a few weeks. In Italy hospitals now have to triage patients based on age and likelihood of recovery.

I heard from 3 sources that actual cases in Slovenia are higher and there are more people in hospitals than officially declared (32, double from 2 days ago).

[Dr Mordrid]

MI just announced 2 presumed cases, waiting for CDC confirmation. One male, one female, both middle-age.

Wayne County (Detroit area)

Oakland county (northwest of Wayne County), an international traveller.